According to a report by the Mediterranean Foundation, it is likely that “the Central Bank will tighten monetary policy before the end of the year in order to reduce the gap between expectations and inflation target” due to the difficulty of the CPI to drill the floor of 1 , 5% monthly and “the risk of a resurgence” of the price increase.
The consultant warned that the problems that the Government is having to address inflation, together with the growing deficit of the external sector, represent, for the moment, “a warning signal that does not harm the economy, but must be considered in terms of the projections for 2018 “.
“This would have an impact on the durable goods market and could sharpen the peers that started in March, but it should not necessarily affect the investment climate,” says the report of the Mediterranean Foundation.
According to the estimates of the consulting firm Economy and Regions (E & R) and IPC Online, the Consumer Price Index last month stood at 1.7%, above 1.4% in August and very high of the 1% monthly expected to reach the BCRA by this time of year. Since the Foundation Faith are even more pessimistic and estimate that inflation in September would have reached 2.1 percent. The official data of the Indec will be known this Thursday.
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Financial analyst Christian Buteler does not doubt that, if inflation does not converge to the projected numbers, the Central Bank will once again tighten measures to try to double it.
“In 2017 it is clear that the targets will not be reached, but the BCRA will continue to work to make the deviation as small as possible, nor have it changed the targets for 2018 and everything it does today will also help to reduce the drag” , he claimed.
“The central bank knows that the new wave of tariff increases will have its impact and will only be able to counteract it by tightening its policy, adding to the reactivation of some sectors, where it is always possible to filter some price rises as well. is shrinking and I would not be surprised if it defends its credibility with more monetary tightening, we will see how far the real economy resists, “added Buteler.
The hardening, analysts agree, could come after the legislative elections. For now, market projections indicate that today the monetary authority will maintain the benchmark rate – the center of the 7-day pass broker – at 26.25 percent.